Reward-Risk Win Rate Matrix Calculator

Analyze the profitability of different trading strategies by visualizing how various combinations of win rates and reward-to-risk ratios affect your expected value per trade. See instantly whether your trading approach is mathematically profitable with our interactive matrix showing 60 different strategy combinations.

How to Use the Calculator

Basic Setup Process

Step 1: Set Your Risk per Trade Enter the dollar amount you're willing to lose on each trade (e.g., $100 for smaller accounts, $1,000 for larger prop firm accounts).

Step 2: Choose Your Reward-to-Risk Ratio Select from preset options (0.5:1 to 3:1) or enter a custom ratio. Higher ratios mean you aim for bigger wins relative to your risk.

Step 3: Set Your Win Rate Use the slider to input your expected win percentage based on your trading strategy and historical performance.

Step 4: Analyze Results

• Green Checkmark: Your strategy is mathematically profitable
• Red X: Your strategy will lose money over time
• Expected Value: Shows average profit/loss per trade

Interactive Matrix Features

How to Use the Matrix:

• Click any cell to instantly update your inputs to match that combination
• Color coding provides immediate visual feedback (green = profitable, red = unprofitable)
• Real-time updates as you adjust your input parameters

What the Matrix Shows:

• 60 different win rate and reward-to-risk combinations
• Instant profitability analysis for each scenario
• Visual comparison between different trading approaches
• Quick identification of breakeven points

Understanding Your Results

Expected Value (EV) Explained: Expected Value represents the average profit or loss per trade over time. A positive EV means your strategy is mathematically profitable long-term, while negative EV indicates a losing approach.

Profitability Indicators:

• Positive EV: Strategy makes money over time
• Negative EV: Strategy loses money over time
• Zero EV: Breakeven strategy (no profit or loss)

Key Insights:

• Higher reward-to-risk ratios require lower win rates to be profitable
• Lower reward-to-risk ratios need higher win rates for profitability
• The calculator helps identify optimal combinations for your trading style

Calculator Limitations:

• Assumes consistent performance over time
• Based on fixed reward-to-risk ratios (real trading may vary)
• Doesn't account for trading fees, commissions, or slippage
• Results represent mathematical probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes